Nov. 8, 2024

Democrats Sweep Washington Statewide Offices, Trump Retakes the Presidency

Tuesday's general election featured no shortage of shake-ups as voters elected a new president at the federal level and a new governor, attorney general, and insurance commissioner for the first time in over a decade in Washington state. Some races saw quick, decisive victories, while the state's most competitive districts will be determined over the coming days and weeks due to Washington's vote-by-mail system.

As of this writing, the secretary of state's office is tracking election returns and more than 700,000 ballots are still on hand to be processed. WAMPAC (Washington Medical Political Action Committee), the nonpartisan political campaign arm of the WSMA, is closely monitoring developments. Below is a preliminary update from WAMPAC on the current elections landscape. Be aware that dynamics may shift as ballots continue to be counted and results are finalized.

A look at federal outcomes

At the top of the ticket, former Republican President Donald Trump has captured the presidency for a second time. The U.S. Senate will be controlled by Republicans, but it's too soon to say which party will control the House of Representatives. Among Washington state's congressional delegation, most incumbents appear poised to retain their seats, including former Issaquah pediatrician U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier, MD, who has won a fourth term in the 8th Congressional District. The possible exceptions are in the state's 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts, which are too close to call at this time.

The 3rd Congressional District of Southwest Washington is one of the most competitive districts in the country and will be influential in determining which party is in control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The race features incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against Republican Joe Kent, the same candidates who faced one another in the 2022 election. In Central Washington's 4th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Dan Newhouse is locked in a tight race with Jerrod Sessler. Both are Republicans, but Sessler is considered the more conservative of the two candidates.

There were two open seats in Washington state's congressional delegation with the retirement of Republican U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the 5th Congressional District of Eastern Washington and Democrat U.S. Rep. Derek Kilmer in the 6th Congressional District, which includes the Kitsap and Olympic peninsulas and Tacoma. Republican Michael Baumgartner is a former state legislator who will succeed McMorris Rodgers and Democrat Emily Randall is a current state legislator who will replace Kilmer.

Key federal races

Senator: Maria Cantwell* (D) - 59.77%, Dr. Raul Garcia (R) - 40%

Rep. District 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez* (D) - 51.78%, Joe Kent (R) - 47.84%

Rep. District 4: Dan Newhouse* (R) - 50.35%, Jerrod Sessler (R) - 48.03%

Rep. District 5 (open): Michael Baumgartner (R) - 59.79%, Carmela Convoy (D) - 40.08%

Rep. District 6 (open): Emily Randall (D) - 57.3%, Drew MacEwen (R) - 42.58%

Rep. District 8: Kim Schrier* (D) - 54.18%, Carmen Goers (R) - 45.65%

*Denotes incumbent

Washington voters largely say 'no' to initiatives

Initiatives are an avenue for Washington state voters to make or repeal state laws directly. Passage of any one of the four initiatives considered by voters would have a significant impact on the state budget, which is already forecasting a $5 billion-$10 billion shortfall over the four-year budget cycle. As of this writing, three of the initiatives are failing: capital gains tax repeal, Climate Commitment Act repeal, and long-term care program opt-out. The initiative that would prohibit state and local governments from restricting access to natural gas is passing with a slim majority of 51.22% and is likely too close to call at this time. Per policy adopted by the WSMA House of Delegates, WAMPAC engaged in opposition on two initiatives: the capital gains tax and Climate Commitment Act repeals.

Initiatives

I-2066: Natural gas restriction prohibition: Pass - 51.22%, Fail - 48.78%

I-2109: Capital gains tax repeal: Pass - 36.79%, Fail - 63.21%

I-2117: Climate Commitment Act repeal: Pass - 38.31%, Fail - 61.69%

I-2124: Long-term care program opt-out: Pass - 44.51%, Fail - 55.49%

New faces in the Washington state executive branch

There were nine statewide positions on the ballot and Democrats are outperforming their Republican opponents across the board. Current Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, has defeated former Republican Congressman Dave Reichert to become the state's 24th governor. Nick Brown, a Democrat, will become the state's new top attorney, becoming the first Black person to hold the position in Washington state. And legislator and attorney Patty Kuderer, a Democrat, will become the new insurance commissioner. It is the first time in over a decade that Washington state will have a new governor, attorney general, and insurance commissioner.

Key statewide races

Governor (open): Bob Ferguson (D) - 56.28%, Dave Reichert (R) - 43.53%

Insurance commissioner (open): Patty Kuderer (D) - 57.16%, Phil Fortunato (R) - 42.73%

Attorney general (open): Nick Brown (D) - 56.26%, Pete Serrano (R) - 43.66%

The balance of power in the Washington State Legislature

Heading into the 2024 elections, Democrats were forecasting a number of districts with potential "pickup" opportunities to grow their majorities in the state Legislature. Key features of these districts include any combination of existing divided representation, an evolving electorate, dynamic candidates, and new district boundary lines. With the exception of the 14th Legislative District where Republicans appear to be maintaining control of all three seats, the key races WAMPAC had been tracking most closely are too close to call as they represent the most competitive areas of the state.

While it's clear that Democrats will maintain strong control of both the state Senate and House of Representatives, it remains to be seen to what extent Democrats will sustain or grow their majorities in each chamber.

Key legislative races - Senate

Legislative District 10
Oak Harbor: Ron Muzzall* (R) - 49.77%, Janet St. Clair (D) - 50.12%

Legislative District 14
Yakima: Curtis King* (R) - 56.69%, Maria Beltran (D) - 43.04%

Legislative District 17
Vancouver (open): Paul Harris (R) - 50.49%, Marla Keethler (D) - 49.4%

Legislative District 18
Battle Ground (open): Adrian Cortes (D) - 50.82%, Brad Benton (R) - 49%

Key legislative races - House

Legislative District 14, Pos. 1
Yakima (open): Chelsea Dimas (D) - 42.04%, Gloria Mendoza (R) - 57.38%

Legislative District 14, Pos. 2
Yakima (open): Ana Ruiz Kennedy (D) - 44.97%, Deb Manjarrez (R) - 54.74%

Legislative District 17, Pos. 2
Vancouver (open): Terri Niles (D) - 50.18%, David Stuebe (R) - 49.69%

Legislative District 18, Pos. 2
Battle Ground (open): John Zingale (D) - 49.75%, John Ley (R) - 50.1%

Legislative District 26, Pos. 1
Gig Harbor (open): Adison Richards (D) - 52.25%, Jesse Young (R) - 47.63%

*Denotes incumbent

With questions about any of the information discussed above or WAMPAC's engagement on campaigns, please reach out to WAMPAC Director Alex Wehinger .