Washington Primary Election Results: Implications for Healthcare and the Legislature

Now a week out from the Aug. 4 primary election, the dynamics heading into the November general election are becoming clearer. At the time of this writing, more than 1.7 million ballots have been tabulated, with a turnout rate of about 34%. More than 80,000 ballots remain to be counted. You can stay up to date on the most recent ballot returns on the Secretary of State’s election results webpage.

Federal

All congressional incumbents comfortably advanced to November’s general election, with the exception of Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who will face a competitive race against Republican challenger and state Sen. John Braun in the 3rd Congressional District.

Rep. Kim Schrier is in a strong position for her fourth reelection to the 8th Congressional District and will face Republican challenger Spencer Meline.

The open seat in the 4th Congressional District, created by Rep. Dan Newhouse’s retirement, will feature President Trump-endorsed Republican Amanda McKinney against Democrat John Duresky.

Judicial

Washington Supreme Court justices are elected statewide, and four of the court’s nine seats were on the primary ballot, a rare occurrence resulting from a combination of retirements, appointments, and age restrictions.

All three judicial incumbents will advance to the November general election. The open seat for the third justice position looks poised to feature Gov. Bob Ferguson-supported Jaime Michelle Hawk against David Stevens.

A fifth judicial election for the fourth justice position will be on the general election ballot. Because there are only two candidates in that race, both advanced automatically.

Key legislative districts

As we’ve said before, midterm elections tend to yield positive results for the party not occupying the White House, and that adage held true for Washington state.

Legislative Democrats have held strong majorities in both the state House and Senate for almost a decade. The results of this primary indicate that House Democrats could potentially grow that majority by as many as seven seats, the number necessary to reach a supermajority, while the partisan makeup of the Senate looks likely to remain generally the same.

Both parties are prioritizing affordability on the campaign trail, but the impact of a Trump presidency on these down-ballot races cannot be overstated.

3rd Legislative District — Position 2

Several candidates were vying for this open seat in the Spokane area, including emergency medicine physician Pam Kohlmeier. Separated by fewer than 1,000 votes, Kohlmeier fell just short of making the top two and advancing to November’s general election.

• Luc Jasmin (Democrat): 32.8%
• Natalie Poulson (Republican): 32.5%
• Pam Kohlmeier (Democrat): 30.4%

12th Legislative District — Position 1

Located in central Washington, this rural district includes all of Chelan County and is typically considered reliably Republican. The primary results present a potential pickup opportunity for House Democrats, although the other Republican incumbent representing the district maintains a comfortable lead over his challengers.

• Rep. Brian Burnett (Republican): 50.5%
• Stacy Willoughby (Democrat): 49.4%

14th Legislative District — Both positions

The 14th Legislative District includes Yakima, and its composition has changed over the years following redistricting efforts and related lawsuits, making it an area of interest for Democrats looking to expand their majorities. The primary results indicate a possible shift in the traditionally Republican district.

Position 1

• Rep. Gloria Mendoza (Republican): 51.4%
• Chelsea Dimas (Democrat): 42.8%

Position 2

• Rep. Deb Manjarrez (Republican): 51.1%
• Ezequiel Morfin (Democrat): 30.3%

17th and 18th Legislative Districts — Both positions

In recent years, Democrats have increasingly worked to grow their footprint in areas of southwest Washington that generally favor Republicans. The primary results show all Republican incumbents losing to their Democratic challengers in the two districts, representing four potential pickup opportunities for House Democrats.

17th Legislative District — Position 1

• Rep. Kevin Waters (Republican): 43.9%
• Ben Christly (Democrat): 52.3%

17th Legislative District — Position 2

• Rep. David Stuebe (Republican): 45.0%
• Diana Perez (Democrat): 54.8%

18th Legislative District — Position 1

• Rep. Stephanie McClintock (Republican): 47.8%
• Randi Knott (Democrat): 52.0%

18th Legislative District — Position 2

• Rep. John Ley (Republican): 46.4%
• Deken Letinich (Democrat): 53.4%

26th Legislative District – Position 2

One of the few remaining purple districts with divided representation, an open seat was created by the retirement of longtime Health Care Committee member Rep. Michelle Valdez (formerly Caldier).

While the Republican candidate received the most votes in the primary, the combined vote totals for the Democratic candidates vying for the position amounted to more than 50% of the vote, signaling a potential pickup opportunity for House Democrats.

• Katy Cornell (Republican): 43.4%
• Renee Hernandez Greenfield (Democrat): 40.5%

35th Legislative District

Representing all of Mason County and portions of surrounding areas, the 35th Legislative District is typically considered reliably Republican. The primary results show the Republican incumbent virtually tied with the Democratic challenger, indicating a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats.

• Sen. Drew MacEwen (Republican): 50.3%
• Carolina Mejia (Democrat): 49.5%

With questions regarding WAMPAC or our engagement on campaigns, please reach out to WAMPAC Director Alex Wehinger.